Probable Causation

Johannes Kasinger talks about how retail crime affects prices. “The Pass-Through of Retail Crime” by Carl Hase and Johannes Kasinger. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Is murder bad for business? Evidence from Colombia" by Sandra V. Rozo. “Market structure and extortion: Evidence from 50,000 extortion payments" by Zach Y Brown, Eduardo Montero, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. “Larceny in the Product Market: A Hidden Tax?” by Osborne Jackson and Thu Tran. Want more? Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now. I have a Substack! Sign up for Probable Causation: The Newsletter.

Diogo Britto talks about how job loss affects criminal behavior in Brazil. “The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil” by Diogo Britto, Paolo Pinotti, and Breno Sampaio. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Crime and the Labour Market" by Richard B. Freeman. “Job Displacement, Unemployment, and Crime: Evidence From Danish Microdata and Reforms" by Patrick Bennett and Amine Ouazad. “Job Displacement and Crime: Evidence From Norwegian Register Data” by Mari Rege, Torbjørn Skardhamar, Kjetil Telle, and Mark Votruba. “The Effects of Job Loss on Crime: Evidence From Administrative Data" by Evan Rose. “Job Loss, Credit, and Crime in Colombia" by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Christian Posso, and Jorge Tamayo. "Snapping Back: Food Stamp Bans and Criminal Recidivism" by Cody Tuttle. Probable Causation Episode 48: Cody Tuttle. "Does Public Assistance Reduce Recidivism?" by Crystal S. Yang. "Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed…

Morgan Williams Jr. talks about the race-specific effects of policing. "Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily Weisburst, and Morgan Williams, Jr. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime” by Steven Levitt. “Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime: Comment” by Justin McCrary. “Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effects of Police on Crime: Reply” by Steven Levitt. “COPS and Crime” by William N. Evans and Emily G. Owens. “Safety in Police Numbers: Evidence of Police Effectiveness from Federal COPS Grant Applications” by Emily Weisburst. “More COPS, Less Crime” by Steven Mello. “The Effects of COPS Office Funding on Sworn Force Levels,…

David Eil talks with Hannah Walker about her book, "Mobilized by Injustice: Criminal Justice Contact, Political Participation, and Race." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Carolina Arteaga talks about how parental incarceration affects kids' education outcomes. “Parental Incarceration and Children’s Educational Attainment” by Carolina Arteaga. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Impact the Children?” by Stephen B. Billings. “The Impact of Maternal Imprisonment on Children’s Probability of Grade Retention” by Rosa Minhyo Cho. “The Impact of Maternal Incarceration on Children’s Educational Achievement: Results from Chicago Public Schools” by Rosa Minhyo Cho. “The Effects of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio” by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver. “Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. [WORKING PAPER] “The…

Heyu Xiong talks about on how legalizing marijuana affects those with histories of selling marijuana illegally. “Displacement in the Criminal Labor Market: Evidence from Drug Legalizations” by Heyu Xiong. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Building Criminal Capital Behind Bars: Peer Effects in Juvenile Corrections” by Patrick Bayer, Randi Hjalmarsson, and David Pozen. “Making a Narco: Childhood Exposure to Illegal Labor Markets and Criminal Life Paths” by Maria Micaela Sviatschi. “Drug Dealing and Legitimate Self-Employment” by Robert W. Fairlie. “Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo. “The Violent Consequences of Trade-Induced Worker Displacement in Mexico” by Melissa Dell, Benjamin Feigenberg, and Kensuke Teshima. “Prices, Policing and Policy: The Dynamics of Crime Booms and Busts” by Tom Kirchmaier, Stephen Machin, Matteo Sandi, and Robert Witt.

David Eil talks with Gregg Caruso about his book, "Rejecting Retributivism: Free Will, Punishment, and Criminal Justice." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Katherine Eriksson talks about how access to education affected incarceration in the early 20th century. "Education and Incarceration in the Jim Crow South: Evidence from Rosenwald Schools" by Katherine Eriksson. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Impact of Rosenwald Schools on Black Achievement” by Daniel Aaronson and Bhashkar Mazumder. Probable Causation Episode 36: Ellora Derenoncourt. “Closing the Gap? The Effect of Private Philanthropy on the Provision of African-American Schooling in the U.S. South” by Celeste Carruthers and Marianne Wanamaker. "Moving North and into jail? The great migration and black incarceration" by Katherine Eriksson. "Economic Consequences of the U.S. Convict Labor System" by Michael Poyker. "Prisons and Profits: Understanding The Political Economy of Incarceration in the…

Amanda Agan, Anna Harvey, and host Jennifer Doleac talk about the consequences of prosecuting defendants for nonviolent misdemeanor offenses. "Misdemeanor Prosecution" by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Probable Causation Episode 8: Amanda Agan. Probable Causation Episode 46: Anna Harvey. “Punishment Without Crime: How Our Massive Misdemeanor System Traps the Innocent and Makes America More Unequal” by Alexandra Natapoff. "The Scale of Misdemeanor Justice" by Megan Stevenson and Sandra Mayson. "Diversion in the Criminal Justice System" by Michael Mueller-Smith and Kevin T. Schnepel.

Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior. This episode was first posted in October 2019. "Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election" by Traci Burch "Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida’s Ex-Felons" by Traci Burch "Political Consequences of the Carceral State" by Vesla M. Weaver and Amy E. Lerman "Arresting Citizenship: The Democratic Consequences of American Crime Control" by Amy E. Lerman and Vesla M. Weaver "Does Incarceration Reduce Voting? Evidence about the Political Consequences of…

Manisha Shah talks about the effects of criminalizing sex work. This episode was first posted in June 2019. “Crimes against Morality: Unintended Consequences of Criminalizing Sex Work” by Lisa Cameron, Jennifer Muz, and Manisha Shah. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "The Effect of Adult Entertainment Establishments on Sex Crime: Evidence from New York City" by Riccardo Ciacci and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. "Banning the purchase of prostitution increases rape: Evidence from Sweden" by Riccardo Ciacci. "Human Trafficking and Regulating Prostitution" by Samuel Lee and Petra Persson. "Violence and Entry in Prostitution Markets: Implications for Prostitution Law" Samuel Lee and Petra Persson. "Decriminalizing Indoor Prostitution: Implications for Sexual Violence and Public Health" by Scott Cunningham and Manisha…

Desmond Ang talks about how police violence affects local students' academic achievement and well-being. "The Effects of Police Violence on Inner-City Students" by Desmond Ang. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Violence and Vigilance: The Acute Effects of Community Violent Crime on Sleep and Cortisol” by Jennifer A. Heissel, Patrick T. Sharkey, Gerard Torrats-Espinosa, Kathryn Grant, and Emma K. Adam. “The Acute Effect of Local Homicides on Children’s Cognitive Performance” by Patrick Sharkey. “High Stakes in the Classroom, High Stakes on the Street: The Effects of Community Violence on Students’ Standardized Test Performance” by Patrick Sharkey, Amy Ellen Schwartz, Ingrid Gould Ellen, and Johanna Lacoe. “The Effect of Local Violence on Children’s Attention and Impulse Control” by Patrick T. Sharkey, Nicole…

Michael Makowsky talks about how increasing hourly wages, through the minimum wage and EITC, affects recidivism. "The Minimum Wage, EITC, and Criminal Recidivism" by Amanda Agan and Michael Makowsky. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Good Jobs and Recidivism” by Kevin Schnepel. “Local Labor Markets and Criminal Recidivism” by Crystal S. Yang. "Impacts of minimum wages: review of the international evidence" by Arindrajit Dube. "Myth or Measurement: What Does the New Minimum Wage Research Say about Minimum Wages and Job Loss in the United States?" By David Neumark and Peter Shirley. "The Minimum Wage and Crime" by Andrew Beauchamp and Stacey Chan. "Encouraging Desistance from Crime" by Jennifer Doleac. "The Minimum Wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of Effects on the Employment and Income Trajectories of…

Cody Tuttle talks about how banning people with criminal records from receiving SNAP benefits affects recidivism. "Snapping Back: Food Stamp Bans and Criminal Recidivism" by Cody Tuttle. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Capitalizing on Nonrandom Assignment to Treatments: A Regression-Discontinuity Evaluation of a Crime-Control Program” by Richard A. Berk and David Rauma. “Crime and Poverty: Some Experimental Evidence From Ex-Offenders.” by Richard A. Berk, Kenneth J. Lenihan, and Peter H. Rossi. “Transitional Aid for Released Prisoners: Evidence from the Life Experiment” by Charles D. Mallar and Craig V.D. Thornton. “Good Jobs and Recidivism” by Kevin Schnepel. “Local Labor Markets and Criminal Recidivism” by Crystal S. Yang. "Does federal financial aid affect college enrollment? Evidence from drug offenders and the Higher Education Act of 1998" by Michael F. Lovenheim and Emily G. Owens. "First-day criminal recidivism" by Ignacio Munyo and Martín A. Rossi. "SNAP Benefits and Crime: Evidence from…

Greg Midgette talks about the effects of 24/7 Sobriety — a program for defendants with alcohol-related offenses, based on swift-certain-fair principles. “Criminal Deterrence: Evidence from an Individual‐Level Analysis of 24/7 Sobriety” by Beau Kilmer and Greg Midgette. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment” by Mark A.R. Kleiman. "The Efficacy of the Rio Hondo DUI Court: A 2-Year Field Experiment" by John M. MacDonald, Andrew R. Morral, Barbara Raymond, and Christine Eibner. ”Punishment and deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving” by Benjamin Hansen. “Efficacy of Frequent Monitoring with Swift, Certain, and Modest Sanctions for Violations: Insights from South Dakota’s 24/7 Sobriety Project” by Beau Kilmer, Nancy Nicosia, Paul Heaton, and Greg Midgette. "Can a criminal justice alcohol abstention programme with swift, certain, and modest sanctions (24/7 Sobriety) reduce population mortality? A retrospective observational study" by Nancy…

David Eil talks with Erin Kelly about her book, "The Limits of Blame: Rethinking Punishment and Responsibility." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER ITEMS WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Judge statement in sentencing of Larry Nasser

Anna Harvey talks about how court-ordered affirmative action in police departments affected racial disparities in crime victimization. “Reducing Racial Disparities in Crime Victimization: Evidence from Employment Discrimination Litigation” by Anna Harvey and Taylor Mattia. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence" by Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary. "COPS and crime" by William N. Evans and Emily G. Owens. "Using Terror Alert Levels to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime" by Jonathan Klick and Alexander Tabarrok. "The Effect of Police Response Time on Crime Clearance Rates" by Jordi Blanes i Vidal and Tom Kirchmaier. "The Relationship Between Crime Reporting and Police: Implications for the Use of Uniform Crime Reports" by Steven Levitt. "The Effect of…

Conrad Miller talks about how local racial composition affects punishment severity in the criminal justice system. "Racial Divisions and Criminal Justice: Evidence from Southern State Courts" by Benjamin Feigenberg and Conrad Miller. *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Public Goods and Ethnic Divisions” by Alberto Alesina, Reza Baqir, and William Easterly. “Reassessing the Racial Divide in Support for Capital Punishment: The Continuing Significance of Race” by James Unnever and Francis Cullen. “Racial Disparities in Incarceration Increase Acceptance of Punitive Policies” by Rebecca C. Hetey and Jennifer L. Eberhardt. “The Judge, the Politician, and the Press: Newspaper Coverage and Criminal Sentencing across Electoral Systems” by Claire S.H. Lim, James M. Snyder Jr., and David Strömberg. "Who Watches the Watchmen? Local News and Police Behavior in the United States" by Nicola Mastrorocco and Arianna Ornaghi. Probable Causation Episode 44: Arianna Ornaghi "Local Crime News Bias: Extent, Causes and…

David Eil talks with Sarah Brayne about her book, "Predict and Surveil: Data, Discretion, and the Future of Policing." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Arianna Ornaghi talks about how local news coverage of crime affects policing. "Who Watches the Watchmen? Local News and Police Behavior in the United States" by Nicola Mastrorocco and Arianna Ornaghi. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Judge, the Politician, and the Press: Newspaper Coverage and Criminal Sentencing across Electoral Systems” by Claire S.H. Lim, James M. Snyder Jr., and David Strömberg. “Conservative News Media and Criminal Justice: Evidence from Exposure to Fox News Channel” by Elliott Ash and Michael Poyker. “No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection: Media and sentencing" by Aurélie Ouss and Arnaud Phillippe. “The Effect of Police Oversight on Crime and Allegations of Misconduct: Evidence from Chicago” by Bocar A. Ba and Roman Rivera. “Intensified Scrutiny and Bureaucratic Effort:…

Elizabeth Linos talks about how to recruit more and different people to become police officers. "More Than Public Service: A Field Experiment on Job Advertisements and Diversity in the Police" by Elizabeth Linos. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Behavioral Insights for Building the Police Force of Tomorrow" by Joanna Weill, Elizabeth Linos, Siddharth Mandava, Cecily Wallman-Stokes, and Jacob Appel. "Thick Red Tape and the Thin Blue Line: A Field Study on Reducing Administrative Burden in Police Recruitment" by Elizabeth Linos and Nefara Riesch. "A head for hiring: The behavioural science of recruitment and selection" by Elizabeth Linos and Joanne Reinhard.

Stephen Billings talks about the long-term effects of early interventions for children exposed to lead. This episode was first posted in November 2019. "Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead" by Stephen B. Billings and Kevin T. Schnepel. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Lead Wars: The politics of science and the fate of America's children" by Gerald Markowitz and David Rosner. "Lead exposure and behavior: Effects on antisocial and risky behavior among children and adolescents" by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes. "Environmental policy as social policy? The impact of childhood lead exposure on crime" by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes. "Do low levels of blood lead reduce children's future test scores?" by Anna Aizer, Janet Currie, Peter Simon, and Patrick Vivier. "Lead and juvenile delinquency: New evidence from linked birth, school, and juvenile detention records" by Anna Aizer and Janet Currie. "Toxic truth: Lead and fertility" by Karen Clay, Margarita Portnykh, and Edson…

Amanda Agan talks about the effects of Ban the Box policies. This episode was first posted in July 2019. RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employment" by Abigail Wozniak. "Deleting a Signal: Evidence from Pre-Employment Credit Checks" by Alexander W. Bartik and Scott T. Nelson "Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment" by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr. "The Unintended Consequences of Ban the Box: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories are Hidden" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Benjamin Hansen. "The Effect of Changing Employers' Access to Criminal Histories on Ex-Offenders' Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Massachusetts CORI Reform" by Osborne Jackson and Bo Zhao "Does Banning the Box Help Ex-Offenders Get Jobs? Evaluating the Effects of a Prominent Example" by Evan K. Rose "Ban the Box, Convictions, and Public Sector Employment" by Terry-Ann Craigie "'Ban the Box'…

David Eil talks with David Skarbek about his book, "The Puzzle of Prison Order: Why Life Behind Bars Varies Around the World." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Andrea Velásquez talks about how exposure to violent crime affects risk aversion. "Impact of Violent Crime on Risk Aversion: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War" by Ryan Brown, Verónica Montalva, Duncan Thomas, and Andrea Velásquez. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Violence, Psychological Trauma, and Risk Attitudes: Evidence from Victims of Violence in Colombia” by Andrés Moya. “Violence and Risk Preference: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan” by Michael Callen, Mohammad Isaqzadeh, James D. Long, and Charles Sprenger. “Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?” by Ulrike Malmendier and Stefan Nagel. “Beyond Valence: Toward a Model of Emotion-Specific Influences on Judgement and Choice” by Jennifer Lerner and Dacher Keltner. “The Economic Burden of Crime: Evidence from Mexico” by Andrea Velásquez. “Violent Conflict and Behavior: A Field Experiment in Burundi” by Maarten J. Voors, Eleonora E.M. Nillesen, Philip Verwimp, Erwin H. Bulte, Robert Lensink, and Daan P. Van…

Matthew Lindquist talks about the health effects of prison. "The Health Effects of Prison" by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew Lindquist. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Dose-Response of Time Served in Prison on Mortality: New York State, 1989-2003” by Evelyn Patterson. "The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver. “The Effect of Public Health Insurance on Criminal Recidivism” by Erkmen Aslim, Murat Mungan, Carlos Navarro, and Han Yu. “Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel Bondurant, Jason Lindo, and Isaac Swensen. “New Evidence that Access to Health Care Reduces Crime” by Jennifer Doleac. “Access to Health Care and Criminal Behavior: Short-Run Evidence from the ACA Medicaid Expansions” by Jacob Vogler. “The Effect of Medicaid Expansion on Crime Reduction: Evidence from HIFA-waiver Expansions” by Hefei Wen, Jason Hockenberry, and Janet Cummings.

Emily Leslie talks about how social distancing due to COVID-19 has affected domestic violence. "Sheltering in place and domestic violence: Evidence from calls for service during COVID-19" by Emily Leslie and Riley Wilson. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Gender Wage Gap and Domestic Violence” by Anna Aizer. “Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior” by David Card and Gordon Dahl. "COVID-19 and Crime: Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders on Domestic Violence" by Lindsey Rose Bullinger, Jillian B. Carr, and Analisa Packham. "The Impact of the Coronavirus Lockdown on Domestic Violence" by Sarath Sanga and Justin McCrary. "Unintended Consequences of Lockdowns: COVID-19 and the Shadow Pandemic" by Saravana Ravindran and Manisha Shah. "Hang Up on Stereotypes: Domestic Violence and Anti-Abuse Helpline Campaign" by Marco Colagrossi, Claudio Deiana, Andrea Geraci, and Ludovica Giua.

Anna Bindler talks about the labor market effects of crime victimization. "Scaring or scarring? Labour market effects of criminal victimisation" by Anna Bindler and Nadine Ketel. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Criminal Deterrence: A Review of the Literature" by Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary. "Crime and Economic Incentives" by Mirko Draca and Stephen Machin. "Crime and Mental Well-Being" by Francesca Cornaglia, Naomi E. Feldman, and Andrew Leigh. "The Effect of Local Area Crime on Mental Health" by Christian Dustmann and Francesco Fasani. "Costs of Victimization" by Anna Bindler, Nadine Ketel, and Randi Hjalmarsson. "The price of violence: Consequences of violent crime in Sweden" by Petra Ornstein. "Violence While in Utero: The Impact of Assaults During Pregnancy on Birth Outcomes" by Janet Currie, Michael Mueller-Smith, and Maya Rossin-Slater. Episode 18 of Probable Causation: Maya Rossin-Slater.

CarlyWill Sloan talks about racial bias in police use of force. "Does Race Matter for Police Use of Force? Evidence from 911 Calls" by Mark Hoekstra and CarlyWill Sloan. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence” by Shamena Anwar and Hanming Fang. “Generalising the Hit Rates Test for Racial Bias in Law Enforcement, with an Application to Vehicle Searches in Wichita” by Nicola Persico and Petra Todd. “A New Look at Racial Profiling: Evidence from the Boston Police Department” by Kate Antonovics and Brian G. Knight. “Testing for Racial Profiling in Traffic Stops From Behind a Veil of Darkness” by Jeffrey Grogger and Greg Ridgeway. “How Dark Is Dark? Bright Lights, Big City, Racial Profiling” by William C. Horrace and Shawn M. Rohlin. "Racial Bias in Police Investigations" by Jeremy West. Episode 19 of Probable Causation: Jeremy West. “An Empirical Analysis of Racial Differences in Police Use of Force” by Roland G. Fryer.…

Jamein Cunningham talks about the effects of providing legal services to the poor. "Changes in Family Structure and Welfare Participation Since the 1960s: The Role of Legal Services" by Andrew Goodman-Bacon and Jamein P. Cunningham. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Justice and Reform: The Formative Years of the OEO Legal Services Program” by Earl Johnson. “To Establish Justice for All: The Past and Future of Civil Legal Aid in the United States” by Earl Johnson. “Making Noncitizen Rights Real: Where Are Noncitizens Coming Forward to Denounce Legal Services Fraud?” by JM Pedroza. “An Evaluation of the Federal Legal Services Program: Evidence from Crime Rates and Property Values” by Jamein P. Cunningham. “The Effects of the Neighborhood Legal Services Program on Riots and Wealth of African Americans” by Jamein P. Cunningham and Rob Gillezeau.

Ellora Derenoncourt talks about how the Great Migration affected economic mobility. "Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration" by Ellora Derenoncourt. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective" by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Maggie R. Jones, and Sonya R. Porter. "The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility I: Childhood Exposure Effects" by Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren. "The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility II: County-Level Estimates" by Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren. "Competition in the Promised Land: Black Migration and Racial Wage Convergence in the North, 1940–1970" by Leah Platt Boustan. "Was Postwar Suburbanization 'White Flight'? Evidence from the Black Migration" by Leah Platt Boustan. "Competition in the Promised Land: Black Migrants in Northern Cities and Labor Markets" by Leah Platt Boustan. "Migration Networks and Location Decisions: Evidence…

Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. "Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, and Lutz Sager. “The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone” by Jesse Burkhardt, Jude Bayham, Ander Wilson, Ellison Carter, Jesse D. Berman, Katelyn O’Dell, Bonne Ford, Emily V. Fischer, and Jeffrey R. Pierce. “The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction” by Tatyana Deryugina, Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor, and Julian Reif. “Airports, Air Pollution, and Contemporaneous Health” by Wolfram Schlenker and W. Reed Walker. “Traffic Congestion and Infant Health: Evidence from E-ZPass” by Janet Currie and Reed Walker. “As the Wind Blows: The…

David Phillips talks about how emergency financial assistance for housing affects crime. "Does emergency financial assistance reduce crime?" by Caroline Palmer, David C. Phillips, and James X. Sullivan. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Scarcity: Why Having Too Little Means So Much" by Sendhil Mullainathan. "Evicted: Poverty and Profit in the American City" by Matthew Desmond. "Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior" by David Card and Gordon B. Dahl. "Welfare Payments and Crime" by C. Fritz Foley. "SNAP Benefits and Crime: Evidence from Changing Disbursement Schedules" by Jillian B. Carr and Analisa Packham. Episode 28 of Probable Causation: Jillian Carr. "The impact of homelessness prevention programs on homelessness" by William N. Evans, James X. Sullivan, and Melanie Wallskog. "SNAP Schedules and Domestic Violence" by Jillian B. Carr and Analisa Packham. "The Impact of Economic Opportunity on Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Fracking Boom"…

Jason Lindo talks about how violent media content affects crime. "Persistent Effects of Violent Media Content" by Jason M. Lindo, Isaac D. Swensen, and Glen R. Waddell. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Violent Video Games Stress People Out and Make Them More Aggressive” by Hasan Youssef, Laurent Bègue, and Brad J. Bushman. “Does Movie Violence Increase Violent Crime?” by Gordon Dahl and Stefano DellaVigna. “Violent Video Games and Violent Crime” by Scott Cunningham, Benjamin Engelstätter, and Michael R. Ward. “Violent Video Games and Real-World Violence: Rhetoric Versus Data” by P.M. Markey, C.N. Markey, and J.E. French. “Early Childhood Education by Television: Lessons from Sesame Street” by Melissa S. Kearney and Philip Levine. “Media Role Models and Black Educational Attainment: Evidence from The Cosby Show” by Kirsten Cornelson.

Sarit Weisburd talks about the effect of police presence on crime. "Police Presence, Rapid Response Rates, and Crime Prevention" by Sarit Weisburd. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Kansas City Preventative Patrol Experiment” by George L. Kelling, Tony Pate, Duane Dieckman, Charles E. Brown. “General Deterrent Effects of Police Patrol in Crime Hot Spots: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by Lawrence W. Sherman and David Weisburd. “Problem-Oriented Policing in Violent Crime Places: A Randomized Controlled Experiment” by Anthony Braga, David Weisburd, Elin Waring, Lorraine Green Mazerolle, William Spellman, and Francis Gajewski. “Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime” by Steven D. Levitt. “COPS and Crime” by William N. Evans and Emily G. Owens. “Do Police Reduce Crime? Estimates Using the Allocation of Police Forces After a Terrorist Attack” by Rafael Di Tella and Ernesto Schargrodsky. “Terror and the Costs of Crime” by Eric D. Gould and Guy Stecklov.…

Jeremy West talks about racial bias in police investigations. This episode was first posted in December 2019. "Racial Bias in Police Investigations" by Jeremy West. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Racial Bias in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence" by John Knowles, Nicola Persico and Petra Todd. "An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence" by Shamena Anwar and Hanming Fang. "A New Look at Racial Profiling: Evidence from the Boston Police Department" by Kate Antonovics and Brian Knight "Testing for Racial Profiling in Traffic Stops From Behind a Veil of Darkness" by Jeffrey Grogger & Greg Ridgeway "How Dark Is Dark? Bright Lights, Big City, Racial Profiling" by William Horrace and Shawn Rohlin. "Endogenous Driving Behavior in Veil of Darkness Tests for Racial Profiling" by Jesse Kalinowski, Stephen L. Ross, and Matthew B. Ross. "Learning the ropes: General experience, task-Specific experience, and the output of police officers" by Gregory…

Emily Weisburst talks about the effects of putting police officers in schools. This episode was first posted in August 2019. "Patrolling Public Schools: The Impact of Funding for School Police on Student Discipline and Long‐term Education Outcomes" by Emily K. Weisburst OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Whose Help is on the Way? The Importance of Individual Police Officers in Law Enforcement Outcomes" by Emily Weisburst. "Police in the Hallways: Discipline in an Urban High School" by Kathleen Nolan. "Homeroom Security: School Discipline in an Age of Fear" by Aaron Kupchik. "Testing the School-to-Prison Pipeline" by Emily G. Owens. "Juvenile Incarceration, Human Capital, and Future Crime: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Anna Aizer and Joseph J. Doyle, Jr.

Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. "How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing” by David Bjerk. “The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson. “The Role of Age in Jury Selection and Trial Outcomes” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson. “A Jury of Her Peers: The Impact of the First Female Jurors on Criminal Verdicts” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson. “Politics in the Courtroom: Political Ideology and Jury Decision Making” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson. “No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection: Media and Sentencing” by Aurelie Ouss and Arnaud Philippe. “Path Dependency in Jury Decision Making” by Anna Bindler…

Brittany Street talks about how local employment shocks affect criminal behavior. "The Impact of Economic Opportunity on Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Fracking Boom" by Brittany Street. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Your Friends and Neighbors: Localized Economics Development and Criminal Activity” by Matthew Freedman and Emily Owens. “Who Really Benefits from a Resource Boom? Evidence from the Marcellus and Utica Shale Plays” by R. Kaj Gittings and Travis Roach. “Moving to Economic Opportunity: The Migration Response to the Fracking Boom” by Riley Wilson. “There Will be Blood: Crime Rates in Shale-Rich US Counties” by Alexander James and Brock Smith. “Fracking, Recidivism and Crime” by Ozkan Erin and Emily Owens. [draft available upon request]. “Good Jobs and Recidivism” by Kevin Schnepel. “Local Labor Markets and Criminal Recidivism” by Crystal S. Yang.

Patricio Dominguez talks about how the interactions of victims and offenders affect crime, using bus robberies in Chile as a case study. "How Offenders and Victims Interact: A Case-study from a Public Transportation Reform" by Patricio Domínguez. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Punishment and Crime: A Critique of Current Findings Concerning the Preventive Effects of Punishment” by Philip Cook. “The Clearance Rate as a Measure of Criminal Justice System Effectiveness” by Philip Cook. “The Demand and Supply of Criminal Opportunities” by Philip Cook. “Crime Economics in its Fifth Decade” by Philip Cook, Stephen Machin, Olivier Marie, and Giovanni Mastrobuoni. “Situational Crime Prevention: Its Theoretical Basis and Practical Scope” by Ronald Clarke. “Situational Crime Prevention” by Ronald Clarke. “Modeling Offenders’ Decisions: A Framework for Research and Policy” by Ronald Clarke and Derek Cornish. “Public Safety Through Private Action: An Economic Assessment of BIDS” by Philip Cook and John…

Jillian Carr talks about how staggering the distribution of SNAP benefits affects crime. "SNAP Benefits and Crime: Evidence from Changing Disbursement Schedules" by Jillian B. Carr and Analisa Packham. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “One More Saturday Night: Food Stamp Timing and Monthly Consumption Patterns” by Elena Castellari, Chad Cotti, John M. Gordanier, and Orgul D. Ozturk. “Welfare Payments and Crime” by C. Fritz Foley. “The Short-Term Mortality Consequences of Income Receipt” by William N. Evans and Timothy J. Moore. “The Effects of Government Transfers on Monthly Cycles in Drug Abuse, Hospitalization and Mortality” by Carlos Dobkin and Steven L. Puller. “Eat (and Drink) Better Tonight: Food Stamp Benefit Timing and Drunk Driving Fatalities” by Chad Cotti, John Gordanier, and Orgul Ozturk. “SNAP Schedules and Domestic Violence” by Jillian Carr and Analisa Packham. “Fighting Crime from the Cradle: The Effects of Early Childhood Access to Nutritional Assistance” by Andrew Barr and…

Benjamin Hansen talks about how legalizing marijuana in some states affects cross-state sales of the drug. "Federalism, Partial Prohibition, and Cross-Border Sales: Evidence from Recreational Marijuana" by Benjamin Hansen, Keaton Miller, and Caroline Weber. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Medical Marijuana Laws, Traffic Fatalities, and Alcohol Consumption” by Mark D. Anderson, Benjamin Hansen, and Daniel I. Rees. “Early Evidence on Recreational Marijuana Legalization and Traffic Fatalities” by Benjamin Hansen, Keaton Miller, and Caroline Weber. “Do Medical Marijuana Laws Increase Hard Drug Use?” by Yu-Wei Luke Chu. “The Effect of Medical Marijuana Laws on Adolescent and Adult Use of Marijuana, Alcohol, and Other Substances” by Janet Cummings, Jason Hockenberry, and Hefei Wen. “The Effect of Alcohol Availability on Marijuana Use: Evidence from the Minimum Legal Drinking Age” by Benjamin Crost and Santiago Guerrero. “Medical Marijuana Laws and Teen Marijuana Use” by Mark D. Anderson, Benjamin…

Kirabo Jackson talks about the effects of single-sex education on academic outcomes, arrests, and teen motherhood. "Can Introducing Single-Sex Education into Low-Performing Schools Improve Academics, Arrests, and Teen Motherhood" by C. Kirabo Jackson. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Single-Sex Schools, Student Achievement, and Course Selection: Evidence from Rule-Based Student Assignments in Trinidad and Tobago" by C. Kirabo Jackson. "Causal Effects of Single-Sex Schools on College Entrance Exams and College Attendance: Random Assignment in Seoul High Schools" by Hyunjoon Park, Jere R. Behrman, and Jaesung Choi. "Why Are Single-Sex Schools Successful?" by Christian Dustmann, Hyejin Ku, and Do Won Kwak. "All or Nothing? The Impact of School and Classroom Gender Composition on Effort and Academic Achievement" by Soohyung Lee, Lesley J. Turner, Seokjin Woo, and Kyunghee Lim. "What is a Good School, and Can Parents Tell? Evidence on the Multidimensionality of School Output" by Diether Beuermann, C.…

Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs. "Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller. "Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations" by David Card, Jochen Kluve, and Andrea Weber. "Active Labor Market Policies" by Bruno Crépon and Gerard J. van den Berg. "Employment and Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde. "The Promise of Public Sector-Sponsored Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde. "The Youth Entitlement Demonstration: Subsidized Employment with a Schooling Requirement" by George Farkas, D. Alton Smith, and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer. "A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of In-School and Summer Neighborhood Youth Corps: A Nationwide Evaluation" by Gerald G. Somers and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer. "Summer Training and Education Program (STEP): Report on…

Adam Gelb talks about the Council on Criminal Justice, a new invitational membership organization and think tank focused on the criminal justice field.

Logan Lee talks about residential housing programs and recidivism. "Halfway Home? Residential Housing and Reincarceration" by Logan M. Lee. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "From Locked Up to Locked Out: Access to Affordable Rental Housing and Criminal Recidivism" by Timothy Young. "Stress and Hardship After Prison" by Bruce Western, Anthony A. Braga, Jaclyn Davis, and Catherine Sirois. "Stigma, hHousing and Identity After Prison" by Danya E. Keene, Amy B. Smoyer, and Kim M. Blankenship. "Work Release and Recidivism: An Empirical Evaluation of a Social Policy" by Gordon P. Waldo and Theodore G. Chiricos. "Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model" by Benjamin Monnery, François-Charles Wolff, and Anaïs Henneguelle.

We've unlocked this bonus episode, originally available only to Patreon subscribers: David Eil interviews Rachel Barkow about her book, Prisoners of Politics. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Lelys Dinarte talks about the effects of after-school programs for at-risk youth in El Salvador. "Preventing Violence in the Most Violent Contexts: Behavioral and Neurophysiological Evidence from El Salvador" by Lelys Dinarte and Pablo Egana-delSol "Peer Effects on Violence. Experimental Evidence in El Salvador" by Lelys Dinarte [Draft available from the author upon request.] OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "After-School Programs for Delinquency Prevention: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis" by Sema A. Taheri and Brandon C. Welsh. "What Works to Prevent Violence Among Youth? A White Paper on Youth Violence, Crime Prevention, and the Mexican Context" by Thomas Abt, Chris Blattman, Beatriz Magaloni, and Santiago Tobon. "Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. "Reducing Crime and Violence: Experimental Evidence from Cognitive Behavioral…

Phil Levine talks about the increase in gun exposure and accidental shootings in the wake of Sandy Hook. "Firearms and Accidental Deaths: Evidence from the Aftermath of the Sandy Hook School Shooting" by Phillip B. Levine and Robin McKnight. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States" by Andrew R. Morral, Rajeev Ramchand, Rosanna Smart, Carole Roan Gresenz, Samantha Cherney, Nancy Nicosia, Carter C. Price, Stephanie Brooks Holliday, Elizabeth L. Petrun Sayers, Terry L. Schell, Eric Apaydin, Joshua Lawrence Traub, Lea Xenakis, John Speed Meyers, Rouslan I. Karimov, Brett Ewing, and Beth Ann Griffin. "What Happens After Calls for New Gun Restrictions? Sales Go Up" by Gregor Aisch and Josh Keller "More than 240,000 Students have Experienced Gun Violence at School Since Columbine" by John Woodrow Cox, Steven Rich, Allyson Chiu, John Muyskens, and Monica Ulmanu

Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. "Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.) Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preventing Failures to Appear in Court" by Brice Cook, Binta Zahra Diop, Alissa Fishbane, Jonathan Hayes, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj Shah. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Bail, Jail, and Pretrial Misconduct: The Influence of Prosecutors" by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson. “Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson. “The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang. “The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily…